Los Cabos Mayor Oscar Leggs Castro was elected in 2021. He will serve through 2024. He is eligible to stand for re-election for another term. Leggs Castro is a member of the Morena party, the same party as Baja California Sur’s governor and Mexico’s president. The mayor in Los Cabos is from a different faction of Morena than the governor in Baja California Sur but the two enjoy a positive working relationship.
It is possible that in 2024 after local and national elections the Los Cabos mayor could represent a different political party than Mexico’s president. Given Los Cabos’ strategic importance to Mexico’s tourism sector the downside risk of a destructive rift emerging between the mayor and the state and national government is relatively minimal. The most likely scenario is that all three levels of government in Los Cabos will continue to be controlled by the Morena party after the upcoming election cycle. Overall, the political risk outlook in Baja California Sur is relatively stable.
Foreign executives doing due diligence on potential investments in Mexico need to understand the potential implications stemming from crime and security issues. In general, the risk of violent crime is lower in Baja California Sur than in other states in Mexico. It is not common for criminal groups in Baja California Sur to kidnap foreign executives or the employees of foreign companies. In 2021, Baja California recorded 77 murders, or 2.4% as many as the neighboring state of Baja California, which recorded 3,246 homicides in 2021. Overall, Baja California Sur recorded the 2nd fewest total number of murders of any state in Mexico. In 2017 three tourists were killed in a shooting at a beach in Los Cabos.
Although Baja California Sur is relatively peaceful in 2022 there is no guarantee that the current dynamic will hold in the coming years.
In general, in Mexico, violent crime depends on backroom deals and rifts between rival criminal organizations and political leaders. It is likely that current trends of violence in Baja California Sur and Los Cabos will remain steady over the next two years. However, the arrest or death of senior New Generation Cartel members in the state could provoke a new fight for control and cause a major uptick in violent crime. The default outcome for Baja California Sur and Los Cabos will be the continuation of current dynamics over the next two years.
Source: Forbes Mexico