The contrast between tourism splendor and institutional deficiencies not only undermines public confidence but also jeopardizes the social and ecological future of the state of Baja California Sur. The current administration faces notable failures in coordination, prioritization, and response to the most pressing challenges. Without a change in strategy, the tourism dream could turn into a nightmare for its residents.
The recent CRIPESO survey makes public sentiment clear: only 26.9% of the population supports Governor Víctor Manuel Castro Cosío, compared to a resounding 69.7% who disapprove of his performance. Nearly half of Baja California Sur residents—49.4%—consider the current administration to be even worse than the previous one.
Insecurity is one of the most worrying factors. According to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), in just six months, the perception of insecurity grew 9 points in La Paz (from 27.8% to 36.7%) and more than 11 points in Los Cabos (from 24.7% to 36%).
Meanwhile, the so-called “cockroach effect”—the migration of criminal groups after operations in other states—has brought with it clashes, narco-banners, and an alarming statistic: intentional homicides doubled in three months, rising from 34 to 69 cases. In the 2025 Peace Index, Baja California Sur dropped to 20th place out of the country’s 32 states.
Corruption also undermines confidence in the state’s leader, as more than half of the population (54%) perceives an increase in illicit practices in government. Disappearances remain at a chilling rate: 87 cases in 2022, 98 in 2023, and 107 in 2021, in addition to more than a hundred bodies found in clandestine graves since 2021, according to the Búsqueda x La Paz collective.
The local economy is also not immune to this negative trend: 45.5% of residents say their economic situation has worsened, largely due to the rising cost of basic services and fuel. And although citizens rank public works as the second most urgent priority (24.8%), the general perception is that projects are insufficient or lack strategic direction.
Tourism, an undisputed economic driver, is also becoming a high-risk environmental challenge. Organizations such as BCSicletos denounce that mega-cruise ships arriving in La Paz release polluting emissions equivalent to 30,000 cars, in addition to increasing pressure on water and biodiversity. The situation is aggravated by a legal limitation, as the state lacks the authority to declare environmental contingencies, leaving it without the tools to address critical pollution episodes.
Undoubtedly, Baja California Sur is caught between two opposing realities: the picture-perfect landscape it sells to the world and the political, social, and ecological crisis its inhabitants are experiencing. Without an urgent strategy, the land on the Sea of Cortez could lose much more than its tourist prestige; it could jeopardize its stability and its future.
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Source: excelsior
