While the official discourse presumes a drop in homicides, the number of missing persons reveals a silent crisis that hits Baja California Sur hard.
La Paz, Baja California Sur.- For years, Baja California Sur was perceived as a state alien to the great centers of violence in the country. Its tourist image, its low population density, and its apparent social calm have fed the narrative of a “safe” territory. However, the most recent data dismantle this mirage.
According to the report “Violence in Mexico 2015-2025“, prepared by the organization México Evalua, Baja California Sur ranks third nationally in the rate of disappearances, with 24.1 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants, only below Sinaloa (29.9) and Sonora (26.3).
The figure places the state above states historically associated with high levels of violence and shows that the phenomenon of disappearances has become one of the most serious and persistent crimes in the region.
The report documents that, at the national level, disappearances increased 213% in the last decade, going from 4,114 people not located in 2015 to 12,872 cases reported in 2025. Far from being an isolated phenomenon, the increase has been constant, even in periods where homicides show statistical decreases.
México Evalúa warns that this trend configures a “hidden figure“: while murders decrease, the number of people who disappear without a trace grows, often without effective investigations or judicial result
In this context, Baja California Sur not only stands out for its position in the national ranking, but also for the speed with which crime has taken root in a state that lacks sufficient infrastructure to face it.
BCS, Sonora, and Sinaloa under the same pattern.
The analysis identifies that Baja California Sur, Sonora, and Sinaloa share clear structural characteristics, including:
–Sustained presence of organized crime.
–Territorial disputes between criminal groups.
–Persistent criminal violence.
In Baja California Sur, these dynamics have intensified in strategic corridors linked to tourism, maritime traffic, and regional mobility routes, without a proportional response from the State, which shows a weak institutional capacity to investigate and locate missing persons.
One of the most striking findings of the report is the limited capacity of the State to investigate disappearances, particularly in entities with overburdened prosecutors’ offices, a shortage of specialized personnel, and low inter-institutional coordination.
In Baja California Sur, search groups have repeatedly denounced delays in investigation files, lack of resources for field searches, and an excessive dependence on social pressure to activate official actions.
The consequence is devastating. Hundreds of families are forced to search on their own, while the files accumulate and crime normalizes. Beyond the numbers, each disappearance represents a life suspended, and a family trapped in uncertainty.
Statistics do not measure the psychological, economic, and social impact left by a person who does not return, nor the wear and tear of mothers, fathers, and siblings who travel through gaps, deserts, and clandestine graves in the absence of the State.
Baja California Sur, the state that many still consider “quiet“, today faces an uncomfortable reality, since it is one of the territories where more people disappear in proportion to its population.
The Mexico Evaluates report not only lays bare a contradiction in national security policy but also forces a rethink of priorities in states such as Baja California Sur, where violence is not always measured in bullets, but in absences.
As long as disappearances continue to grow and the institutional response capacity remains weak, third place in the country will not be just another statistic, but a red alert that the state government can no longer ignore.
Source: Metropolix
